Islamist rebels seize Aleppo. What will Assad and Putin do now?
And who do “we” root for in this mess? A follow-up to yesterday's post
Islamist rebels seize Aleppo. What will Assad and Putin do now? And who do “we” root for in this mess?
As a follow-up to yesterday’s post, it now looks like the Islamist rebels of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who are backed by Turkey, have seized the large city of Aleppo, along with the nearby airport. If true, this is a big deal. The Assad regime says it is preparing a counterattack, but one has to wonder how much assistance Hezbollah and Russia can provide, given that they are knee-deep in their own conflicts closer to home.
Reminder that the Assad regime only survived the Civil War with extensive help from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, and all three are busy with other foes and concerns. Also, if the offensive by HTS really gets rolling, will Turkey be tempted to step in to accelerate or cement the gains by their proxy army?
Also, we posted in our Substack Chat:
the question of who should the West root for in this battle? Here is the text of that thread:
“Regarding yesterday’s post on the renewed fighting in Syria’s Civil War, it has been asked, who should we (i.e. the U.S., the West, believers in Democracy, etc.) root for? As mentioned in the post, the rebels in this battle are Sunni Islamists whose group is descended from al-Qaida. Definitely NOT someone most people would root for. Their enemies in this battle, of course, are the murderous Assad regime, backed by Putin, and the Shiite Islamists of Iran and Hezbollah. For those who back Israel, the U.S., the Kurds, etc. then the best result is that all of the “bad guys” succeed in killing each other. On a tactical level, in my opinion, more pressure on Assad, Putin, and Hezbollah is most likely to advantage the West, but a full on victory by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is not great either. A long, attrition battle would not be a bad thing, strategically. Any other opinions or thoughts?”
Feel free to participate in this chat thread with your thoughts.
Links and References:
https://apnews.com/article/syria-insurgents-aleppo-iran-russia-turkey-abff93e4f415ebfd827d49b1a90818e8