History May Point to Another Global War

The State of the World Today is Very Concerning

History May Point to Another Global War

We can often look to history to see patterns in how the world works.  For example, we can look back at both World Wars to see a series of international events that led to each of these global conflicts.   In looking at the world today, it looks like some of those patterns are repeating. This is not a good thing, as a lot of evidence may point to a new, future global war.

They say that hindsight is 20/20, meaning that from today’s perspective, how historical events played out can seem logical and often fore-ordained. History is useful as a way of informing our present, and trying to see if there are patterns of behavior that can be tracked.  For this thought exercise, let us look in particular at the world today, in terms of the rise of populist and authoritarian governments and the increasing threats of war, and comparing today with two especially violent periods in world history.

World War One (1914-1918) World War Two (1937 [in Asia] or 1939 [in Europe] to 1945), are our historical examples.  In each of these conflicts, we see similar patterns that led up to each conflict.  It can be argued that similar conditions exist today.

In each case, we see several points in common:

1. Increased nationalism and more conflict with near-peer powers (big countries finding issue with other big countries)

2. Imperialism and land-grabbing (big countries going after smaller, weaker countries and territories)

3. The growth and “hardening” of competing alliances of nations (opposing nations finding allies and taking sides)

In both World Wars we see these tendencies. Unfortunately, we can also see these points in the world today.

Let’s take a look at each of these points in history and in today’s world.

The World in Conflict

Increased nationalism and more conflict with near-peer powers (big countries finding issue with other big countries):

In both World War One and World War Two, we see the domestic growth of nationalistic ideology in many of the nations that would end up fighting. In the example of the years leading up to World War One, we see increased nationalism in many of the old empires that would eventually tear those empires apart. Also, in many nations we see political movements, sometimes orchestrated by governments to rally the population behind the rulers by appealing to their sense of ethnic or imperial pride.

In World War Two, this rise of nationalism moves into racist and genocidal territory with Hitler’s Holocaust and in Japan’s ideology of racial superiority over other Asians and European and American colonialists.

In many of these examples, we see increased conflict among the great powers of the time.  Leading into the First World War, Germany and France had old scores to settle, and as each of them sought out allies, other European powers took sides.

Prior to World War Two, we see Japan and China go to war, and the Western powers (France and Britain), increasingly found themselves trying to deal with a resurgent Germany in the late 1930s.

In today’s world, multiple nations, including some that are officially still democracies, have governments that increasingly rely on nationalist sentiments in domestic and foreign policy. For example, in Hungary, the populist government touts a strong anti-immigrant tone, while domestic ethnic minorities, such as the Roma find more and more discrimination.  In Russia, Vladimir Putin openly pines for the good old days when the old Russian Empire and the Soviet Union ruled and/or dominated Eastern Europe.  

In terms of near-peer conflict, where we see nations of comparable power and size go at it, the example of Italy attacking the Ottomans for possession of Libya as an example, as well as Japan taking on Russia for control of land in northern China. 

In the lead-in to World War Two, the Soviets and Japan fought a series of border wars (again in Chinese and Mongolian territory) as they tested each other’s mettle. In 1938, Hitler’s Germany was willing to go to war with Britain and France over Czechoslovakia. In this case, the Western allies backed down. When Hitler tried the same thing over Poland, the British and French did not back down.

Imperialism and land-grabbing (big countries going after smaller, weaker countries and territories):

Prior to World War One, many European countries engaged in a “land-grab” that saw Africa and large areas of Asia become European colonies. Germany and Italy, both relatively new as unified nations, (and with more than a dash of nationalist feelings) entered the fray and sought to become global empires. This at times brought them (especially Germany) into conflict with Britain and France (not war yet, but lots of saber-rattling).  

In Asia, Japan consolidated their takeover of Korea and parts of China (after victories over China and Russia). Even America, after defeating Spain in 1898 (another near-peer war) found itself masters of an overseas empire, with islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, most notably the Philippines. This of course, would later help lead to tension with an expanding Japan.

The parallels with today’s world are obvious. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, has purposely and publicly sought to recreate the old Russian empires. To this end, we see Putin placing Belarus into satellite status, the invasion of Ukraine (which really began with the Donbass War in 2014), and even his intervention in Syria (also in 2014) to prop up the Assad regime are evidence of Putin’s aggressive empire-building.  It should be noted that the old Soviet Union and the original Assad regime in Syria were firm allies against the West and against Israel.

In Asia, we see China picking border fights with nuclear-armed India, as well as claiming and militarizing various islands that are also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, and other nations. The biggest threat from China, of course, is the increasingly nationalistic rhetoric from China towards Taiwan.  

The growth and “hardening” of competing alliances of nations (opposing nations finding allies and taking sides)

As mentioned before, the animosity between France and Germany (following Germany’s complete drubbing of France in their war in 1870-1871), led both powers to seek out allies. To this end, Germany formed the Central Powers pact with Austria-Hungary, which later also included Bulgaria and the Ottomans. France, meanwhile, formed the Triple Entente with Britain and Russia. Since Russia also was allied to Serbia (which, because of nationalism and Austrian colonial policies) found itself in conflict with Austria, when the Austro-Serbian war broke out, it soon dragged in all the allied nations into what we now call World War One.

Similarly, in the lead-in to World War Two, the more powerful authoritarian nations of Germany, Italy, and Japan formed the Axis Powers, with Germany also cementing a side-deal with Stalin’s Soviet Union to divide Eastern Europe between them. Britain and France opposed them, and came to the defense, though not very effectively, of Axis victims Poland, Norway, and Greece. This of course was the start of World War Two in Europe.

Today, we see the development of, to borrow a phrase from George W. Bush, a new “Axis of Evil,” as Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria and their proxies and satellites in Belarus, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. They all commit acts of aggression on neighbors and generally oppose the “decadent” nations of Western Europe, NATO, and most of the rest of East and South Asia.

In opposition to this gang of authoritarian powers, we now see a hardening of will among the NATO alliance in Europe, and in Asia, we see more alliance-building involving the U.S., India, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea. Even Vietnam is working more with other regional powers to contain China.

Looking back on the lead-in to the two World Wars, and comparing those circumstances to the state of the world today, we see striking and concerning parallels. There are now clear alliances in opposition to each other, and, in the case of Ukraine, a clear proxy war in which the West is aiding Ukraine, while also depleting Russian military capability. In East Asia, North Korea’s continued belligerence is bringing the U.S., South Korea, and Japan into more formal military cooperation (Japan and Korea have a bad history, but fear of the Communist North Korean regime is bringing them together), and we see America being much more specific and intentional in stating support for Taiwan.  

There are many scenarios where this new cold war between two large alliance systems could break out into a global war. That, however, may be a topic for a future article.  We finish this post with a thought: compared to the alliances that formed before the two world wars, today’s Western alliances are more formal, more diverse in terms of nations involved, and much more ready to oppose aggression than in either 1914 or 1939. That, hopefully, can act as a deterrent against stupidity on the part of the new Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang-Tehran Axis. We hope.

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